This Site is Dedicated to Those Seeking to Rise Above the Clickbait Epidemic and Place the 2020 Corona Virus Outbreak into Reasoned Perspective
Data from South Korea and Italy Show Corona Virus Risk no Greater than Seasonal Flue for Those Under 50 without Major Chronic Disease 3/29/20
"...One very large portion of our population is at monumentally lower risk of severe infection and death than another. We are, I think- as I have thought all along- massively over-protecting one group and thus causing all kinds of damage by means other than infection, while under-protecting the other..."
David L. Katz M.D. MPH, Coronavirus Mortality Data from Italy: Hard-Earned Messages of Opportunity & Hope 3/29/20
https://davidkatzmd.com/coronavirus-mortality-data-from-italy-hard-earned-messages-of-opportunity-hope/
Yale Researcher Dr. David L. Katz M.D. M.P.H. founding director of Yale University's Yale-Griffin Prevention Research Center Questions Whether Corona Virus Shutdown is a Cure Worse than the Disease.
"...I am deeply concerned that the social, economic and public health consequences of this near total meltdown of normal life — schools and businesses closed, gatherings banned — will be long lasting and calamitous, possibly graver than the direct toll of the virus itself."
Is Our Fight Against Coronavirus Worse Than the Disease?
There may be more targeted ways to beat the pandemic.
By David L. Katz
Dr. Katz is president of True Health Initiative and the founding director of the Yale-Griffin Prevention Research Center.
Corona Virus Resource Site - by Dr. David L. Katz M.D. MPH Yale University - (Updated Daily)
"...as much as 99 percent of active cases in the general population are “mild” and do not require specific medical treatment..."
https://davidkatzmd.com/coronavirus-information-and-resources/
Stanford Medical Professors Question Exaggerated Corvid Death Rates 3/25/20
https://www.wsj.com/articles/is-the-coronavirus-as-deadly-as-they-say-11585088464
UW Medical Professor and Infectious Disease Researcher Questions School closures 3/25/20
https://www.seattletimes.com/opinion/speaking-as-a-dad-and-a-doctor-we-should-rethink-coronavirus-school-closures/
Oxford Researchers say Half of UK Population may Already Have Had Corona Virus and Didn't Know it. 3/24/20
https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/03/oxford-study-coronavirus-may-have-infected-half-of-u-k.html
According to hypothetical modeling from Oxford’s Evolutionary Ecology of Infectious Disease lab, half of the population of the United Kingdom may have already been infected with the coronavirus. If this modeling is confirmed in follow-up studies, that a minuscule number of those infected require hospital treatment, with a majority showing very minor symptoms, or none at all.
Covid-19 European Resource Site - (Updated Daily)
German researcher Dr. Richard Capek argues in a quantitative analysis that the Corona epidemic is in fact an "epidemic of tests" with the number of tests rising exponentially and the proportion of infections and mortality decreasing, which speaks against an exponential spread of the virus itself.
https://swprs.org/a-swiss-doctor-on-covid-19/
Coronaviruses infect millions every year, and are common in the elderly and in hospitalized patients with respiratory illness with annual infection rates from 2.8% to 26%. Only this year is every death broadcast in the news. 3/29/20
"...the main features of this epidemic and the response to it, is circulating estimates that are often exaggerated, even when they come from otherwise excellent scientists...."
John P.A. Ioannidis, Standford University School of Medicine
Coronavirus disease 2019: the harms of exaggerated information and non-evidence-based measures 3/28/20
https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/eci.13222
"Flattening the Curve"
May be the Wrong Approach
The collateral damage from this diffuse form of warfare, aimed at “flattening” the epidemic curve rather than preferentially protecting the especially vulnerable may be ineffectively fighting the contagion even as we cause economic collapse...
David L. Katz M.D. MPH, Is our Fight Against...
Current Evidence Shows Corvid-19 More Widespread and Less Virulent Than Expected
1) In Italy, testing of entire towns shows that half the population testing positive have no symptoms
2) Nasal Swab Testing only Shows People Infected in the Last 2 Weeks, Others who Have had it Test Negative
Dying with Corona Virus does not Mean Dying Of Corona Virus
1) Almost 4,000 Americans die everyday as a result of some debilitating medical condition
- Heart disease (excluding sudden cardiac arrest) 883; Cancer 1,641; Chronic lower respiratory diseases 438; Alzheimer’s 332; Diabetes 228; Influenza/Pneumonia 152; Kidney disease 138 (CDC fast statistics)
2) Actual causes of such deaths are usually opportunistic pathogens
-This is not the same as saying that someone with Cancer died from Covid-19 but this is how such deaths are frequently reported
Spread of testing does is not the same as spread of the Virus
1) There are over 65,000 new Corona Virus tests being given every day
-It is a given that the explosion of infection numbers is a function of the number of tests administered. But this is reported as spread of the virus as opposed to spread of testing.
-If the virus is already much more widespread than acknowledged then based on the number of severe cases, it must be substantially less virulent than reported
What a Reasoned Response to the Corona Virus (and Others Like it to come) that Only Affect Vulnerable Populations Would Look Like
1) Identify those at risk.
- In the current situation the profile of the vulnerable population has become clear that it is limited to those with serious underlying health conditions and age related illness.
2) Limit their Exposure.
-Those dealing with vulnerable persons should observe communicable disease precautions of masks, hand washing,and protection from bodily fluids. The current plan of quarantining vulnerable populations together with younger healthier populations most likely to be asymptomatic carriers of the virus is the exact opposite from what an intelligent plan would provide.
3) Keep those not at Risk in the Workforce
-Keep those not at risk in the workforce and the economy operating to generate resources for the care of those afflicted
https://davidkatzmd.com/coronavirus-information-and-resources/
Even Skeptics Acknowledge that Oxford Researchers may be Correct that Corona Virus is Generally Benign in Humans 3/26/20
https://www.ft.com/content/14df8908-6f47-11ea-9bca-bf503995cd6f
The entire population of the town of Vò in Italy was repeatedly tested and half of the positive cases were asymptomatic... [Meaning no Symptoms]
Stanford Medical Professor Cite Lack of Evidence to Support Draconian Corona Virus Shutdown Response. 3/17/20
"...prepare-for-the-worst reasoning leads to extreme measures of social distancing and lockdowns. Unfortunately, we do not know if these measures work. School closures, for example, may reduce transmission rates. But they may also backfire if children socialize anyhow, if school closure leads children to spend more time with susceptible elderly family members, if children at home disrupt their parents ability to work, and more. School closures may also diminish the chances of developing herd immunity in an age group that is spared serious disease..."
A fiasco in the making?
As the coronavirus pandemic takes hold, we are making decisions without reliable data
By JOHN P.A. IOANNIDIS
MARCH 17, 2020
Dr. John P.A. Ioannidis is professor of medicine and professor of epidemiology and population health, as well as professor by courtesy of biomedical data science at Stanford University School of Medicine, professor by courtesy of statistics at Stanford University School of Humanities and Sciences, and co-director of the Meta-Research Innovation Center at Stanford (METRICS) at Stanford University.
Why the Corona Virus Shutdown is Wrong and Violates Social Justice Norms?
It is Wrong Because it is Based on:
1. Click-Bait reporting which omits age and underlying health condition.
-Although the vast majority of Covid-19 flue deaths involve the elderly with serious pre-existing medical conditions, deaths are reported omitting this critical information necessary for the public and policy makers to rationally assess the overall risk. The rate of Corvid -19 deaths among those without risk factors appears akin to the risk of contracting flesh eating bacteria, something harmful indeed, but a risk that no sane person would suggest quarantining the country and destroying the economy to combat.
2. Gross undercounting of cases and overcounting of victims.
-Severe symptoms get the test, so orders of magnitude more cases with mild or no symptoms go unreported. This gives the impression that the Corvid-19 flue is vastly more harmful than it is.
-Death cases get the test, so everyone who dies with Corvid-19 antigens or antibodies in their system is reported as Corona Virus related death regardless of the actual cause of death or severe underlying health issues.
3. Baseless reports that healthy 60 year olds are at risk.
-The 60 year old number was simply the low end of a 60 - 70 year old cohort which was found to have been at greater risk in China but without consideration to underlying health issues. Obviously the older people get the more health issues they develop, but as we sit here today, there no evidence whatsoever that otherwise healthy 60 yearolds are at risk.
4. Baseless narrative of school age children infecting vulnerable grandparents.
-Closing of schools was based on the narrative that school age children will bring the virus home to their vulnerable grandparents. However, the actual number of households with school age children and elderly vulnerable grandparents is estimated at between single digits and well under 10% and . The reasoned choice would be distance learning for that small number of children with vulnerable grandparents in the home, many of whom will be there to provide child care thus limiting the burden of temporary distance learning.
It is Wrong Because it Results in:
1. More Vulnerable People Infected Not Less.
-Closing workplaces and schools and quaranteening everyone at home forces the vulnerable into close contact with asymptomatic carries of the virus- the exact opposite from what a virus response program should seek to achieve. See Yale Public Health M.D. Dr. Katz article above.
2. Hospitals overwhelmed with panicked flue patients demanding to be admitted and undermining care for those truly in need.
-The vast majority of Corvid-19 patients receiving care from hospitals are receiving no special treatment they could not receive at home, however, they are driven to seek hospital admittance by wildly exaggerated fatality statistics.
3. Children missing immunity to Corvid-19.
-Keeping children home from school to protect them from a virus that has no effect on them except to increase their immunity to future more dangerous variations of the virus is wrong and misguided on every possible level.
4. Angst and Insecurity both mentally, emotionally, physically, and financially for families and individuals out of all proportion to the actual harm from the virus.
-One of the few things we know for sure about Corvid-19 is it has shown to be NOT dangerous to almost everyone who either works out of the home or is in school. Almost all of the small percentage who are vulnerable to the virus either have underlying health conditions, are retired or out of the workforce, or have significant financial security, and are thus easiest candidates for identification and protection from contact with the virus.
It Violates Social Justice Norms Because:
1. It amounts to the Politically Powerful Victimizing the Young and Disenfranchised
-Young people in this country have already been saddled with the costs of neglectful environmental stewardship and fifty thousand dollars each worth of future debt. Now, based on thoughtless click bait exaggeration of Corona Virus virulence, those in power are destroying jobs and the means of livelihood that will impact our young people likely for the rest of their lives.
2. Even the Clickbait Exaggerations Were true it would still Violate Social Justice Norms.
-On the most basic level of human morality, it is fundamentally wrong for the old to consume the means of production needed to sustain the young. It is irrelevant whether such pillaging can bring a few more years of life or health to the aged. Extending the circle of life on the backs of the young and vulnerable undercuts the very basis of society. A generation of young people in this country are already being deprived of their full potentials due to squandering of our environment and insufficient resources for childcare, education, and job creation. It is simply immoral to compound their plight for the benefit of those who created it.
3. The "Grandparents" say "Not in my name!"
-The vast majority of loving and fair minded grandparents in this nation who care about their children and grandchildren are shocked and appalled at the carnage being unleashed upon the next generation in their names. These grandparents didn't work their entire lives to provide for and give a leg up to the next generation, only to see it blown up in their faces and undercut everything they have worked for. They say "Not in my name!" And the political class should listen.
How Could this Destructive Overreaction have Possibly Come to Pass if it is so Wrong?
Like everything else new in our lives - the Internet and Smart Phones lead the way.
1. Public Health officials are trained to spread the alarm not contain it. The main challenge for Public Health officials historically has been to get the public's attention, and this has been a formidable challenge even for the severest of threats. Just as firefighters are raised to fight fires, Public Health officials are raised to spread alarm to mobilize the citizenry.
2. The Internet and Smart Phones have turned this on its head with Click-Bait reporting, Social Media, and the 24 Hour News Cycle now creating the alarm, but with Public Health officials still steeped in the mindset that they as well are the sounders of the alarm.
3. The result is a Perfect Storm of feedback loop between Click-Bait reporting and well meaning Public Health officials who are unable on such short notice to flip their script in order to walk back rather than promote the public alarm.
4. The rest as they say is History with political leaders unable to resist this tidal wave of Media and Public Health pressure, and the mere possibility that the clickbait exaggerations and extrapolations on scant evidence could be right.
What Can I do to Fight the Clickbait Hysteria?
Take Action:
1. Send the reasoned Medical Professor articles on this page to everyone you know and ask them to do the same.
2. Pledge to Hold our Leaders Accountable. Send a link to this site with an email to your elected representatives reminding them that when the dust settles, lives and livelihoods ruined, and the next generation saddled with even greater burdens and fewer economic and employment opportunities to address it, then politicians who trafficked in clickbait exaggerations and clickbait pandering shutdowns will inevitably be brought to account.
